Journal of Rescue Relief

fa Futures Study of Crises due to a Possible Earthquake in Tehran, Iran: Information Infrastructure Vulnerability and Possibility of Occurrence of Efficacy and Influence Crises Futures Study of Crises due to a Possible Earthquake in Tehran, Iran: Information Infrastructure Vulnerability and Possibility of Occurrence of Efficacy and Influence Crises حمایت روانی در سوانح Psychological support in disasters پژوهشي Research article INTRODUCTION: The density of the country’s information infrastructure in Tehran, Iran, and the high vulnerability of these infrastructures raise the question of what effects the demolition of these infrastructures would have. Natural disaster management is entirely dependent on the capacity and efficiency of the central government in Iran and the government also mobilizes and organizes crisis management and resources through an almost monopoly and exclusively controlled information system. Therefore, the present study was accomplished to examine some of the likely impacts and consequences of an earthquake in Tehran from a prospective perspective. METHODS: Using documentary data and the implementation of a two-round expert panel, it was examined whether the demolition of information infrastructures due to a potential earthquake in Tehran would impose efficacy and influence crises on the government. In this way, basic study information was collected using library documents and the futurological aspects of the problem, i.e. the probability of a severe earthquake, destruction of media infrastructure, and the subsequent possible crises were investigated using the Expert panel method. FINDINGS: Taking into account the tectonic potentials and historical backgrounds, the occurrence of a major earthquake with magnitude greater than 7 is highly probable in Tehran. Given the density of information structures, installations, and trusted organizations in vulnerable areas, there is a high likelihood of destruction of a large part of the information infrastructure and networks. This situation, in the absence of measures and sufficient alternative networks, would increase the likelihood of severe disruptions in the information and crisis management process. Such a situation, given the social and political contexts, is likely to trigger or intensify the efficacy and influence crises. CONCLUSION: Considering the drawbacks present in the information structure, i.e. the concentration in Tehran and the imminent destructive earthquake in Tehran, as well as the location of its physical buildings in the vicinity of earthquake faults, there would be many crises facing the country. <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">INTRODUCTION: The density of the country’s information infrastructure in Tehran, Iran, and the high vulnerability of these infrastructures raise the question of what effects the demolition of these infrastructures would have. Natural disaster management is entirely dependent on the capacity and efficiency of the central government in Iran and the government also mobilizes and organizes crisis management and resources through an almost monopoly and exclusively controlled information system. Therefore, the present study was accomplished to examine some of the likely impacts and consequences of an earthquake in Tehran from a prospective perspective. METHODS: Using documentary data and the implementation of a two-round expert panel, it was examined whether the demolition of information infrastructures due to a potential earthquake in Tehran would impose efficacy and influence crises on the government. In this way, basic study information was collected using library documents and the futurological aspects of the problem, i.e. the probability of a severe earthquake, destruction of media infrastructure, and the subsequent possible crises were investigated using the Expert panel method. FINDINGS: Taking into account the tectonic potentials and historical backgrounds, the occurrence of a major earthquake with magnitude greater than 7 is highly probable in Tehran. Given the density of information structures, installations, and trusted organizations in vulnerable areas, there is a high likelihood of destruction of a large part of the information infrastructure and networks. This situation, in the absence of measures and sufficient alternative networks, would increase the likelihood of severe disruptions in the information and crisis management process. Such a situation, given the social and political contexts, is likely to trigger or intensify the efficacy and influence crises. CONCLUSION: Considering the drawbacks present in the information structure, i.e. the concentration in Tehran and the imminent destructive earthquake in Tehran, as well as the location of its physical buildings in the vicinity of earthquake faults, there would be many crises facing the country.</div> Earthquake, Iran, Information Infrastructure, Crisis Management, Political Crisis Earthquake, Iran, Information Infrastructure, Crisis Management, Political Crisis 82 91 http://jorar.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-489-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Abolfazl Delavari ابولفضل دلاوری abdelavari@gmail.com 100319475328460013467 100319475328460013467 Yes Department of Political Science, School of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی Hamid Mahallati-Raini حمید محلاتی راینی 100319475328460013468 0009-0001-0893-1091 No Department of Sociology and Social Sciences, School of Social Sciences, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Research Center for Emergency and Disaster Resilience, Red Crescent Society of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran, Iran هلال احمر Reza-Ali Mohseni رضاعلی محسنی mohseni.net14@gmail.com 100319475328460013469 100319475328460013469 No Department of Sociology and Social Sciences, School of Social Sciences, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad, University, Tehran, Iran دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی