fa Foresight of Informal Settlements to Increase Resilience against Earthquake تاب آوری Resilience پژوهشي Research article <div> <div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size:10pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="background:white"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">INTRODUCTION: Considering the location, the frequency of faults and the probability of earthquake, district 20 is distinguished from other areas as the most dangerous region of Tehran. Due to the uncertainty of the time of the previous destructive earthquake, the probability of activation of these faults is very high.</span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:10pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="background:white"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">METHODS: Regarding the exploratory nature of this research, the environmental scanning technique was used, and due to the dominant approach of this research, which is future research, the Delphi technique was used. Structural analysis has been used in MicMac software to analyze data.</span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:10pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="background:white"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">FINDINGS: The results of the dispersion of the variables indicate the instability of the system in the studied area, and accordingly, five categories of variables were identified.</span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:10pt"><span style="text-justify:inter-ideograph"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="background:white"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">CONCLUSION: The results showed that based on the quantitative analysis of the Scenario Wizard software, three golden, static and crisis scenarios were obtained for the 2051 horizon of district 20, which is the most valid scenario related to the static scenario.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div> </div> <div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri=""><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:"Garamond",serif"></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri=""><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="line-height:107%"><span garamond=""><span style="color:black">INTRODUCTION</span></span></span></span></span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="line-height:107%"><span garamond=""><span style="color:black">: Considering the location, the frequency of faults and the probability of earthquake, district 20 is distinguished from other areas as the most dangerous region of Tehran. Due to the uncertainty of the time of the previous destructive earthquake, the probability of activation of these faults is very high.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri=""><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="line-height:107%"><span garamond=""><span style="color:black">METHODS</span></span></span></span></span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="line-height:107%"><span garamond=""><span style="color:black">: Regarding the exploratory nature of this research, the environmental scanning technique was used, and due to the dominant approach of this research, which is future research, the Delphi technique was used. Structural analysis has been used in MicMac software to analyze data.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri=""><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="line-height:107%"><span garamond=""><span style="color:black">FINDINGS</span></span></span></span></span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="line-height:107%"><span garamond=""><span style="color:black">: The results of the dispersion of the variables indicate the instability of the system in the studied area, and accordingly, five categories of variables were identified.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span calibri=""><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="line-height:107%"><span garamond=""><span style="color:black">CONCLUSION</span></span></span></span></span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="line-height:107%"><span garamond=""><span style="color:black">: The results showed that based on the quantitative analysis of the Scenario Wizard software, three golden, static and crisis scenarios were obtained for the 2051 horizon of district 20, which is the most valid scenario related to the static scenario.</span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:"Garamond",serif"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div> Resilience, Future research, Scenario, Earthquake, District 20 of Tehran. Resilience, Future research, Scenario, Earthquake, District 20 of Tehran. 154 161 http://jorar.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-804-3&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Ali Asgari علی عسگری alisgri65@gmail.com 100319475328460014653 0009-0001-8261-6030 No PhD Student, Department of Geography & Urban Planning, Islamshahr Branch Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Tehran, Iran دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی Azadeh Arbabi Sabzevari آزاده اربابی سبزواریی Az.Arbabi@iau.ac.ir 100319475328460014654 100319475328460014654 Yes Associate Professor, Department of Geography & Urban Planning, Islamshahr Branch Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Tehran, Iran دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی