Volume 18, Issue 3 (8-2026)
jorar 2026, 18(3): 148-154 |
Back to browse issues page
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Mousavi Dehmordi S M, Arbabi Sabzevari A, Amir Azodi T, Adibi Saadinejad F. Investigating Factors Affecting Flood Vulnerability and Risk Management in Ahvaz City Using a Futures Studies Approach. jorar 2026; 18 (3) :148-154
URL: http://jorar.ir/article-1-971-en.html
URL: http://jorar.ir/article-1-971-en.html
Seyed Mehdi Mousavi Dehmordi 
, Azadeh Arbabi Sabzevari * 
, Tuba Amir Azodi , Fatemeh Adibi Saadinejad
, Azadeh Arbabi Sabzevari * , Tuba Amir Azodi , Fatemeh Adibi Saadinejad
Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Iran
Abstract: (15 Views)
INTRODUCTION: Urban flooding is one of the major hazards threatening cities, and its impacts in Ahvaz are influenced by environmental, physical, infrastructural, social, and managerial factors. This study aimed to analyze the interrelationships among variables associated with flood impacts and losses and to identify and prioritize flood risk management strategies in Ahvaz using a futures studies approach.
METHODS: This applied study employed a mixed-method sequential exploratory design. Data were collected through documentary studies, semi-structured interviews, and consultation with 50 purposively selected experts. Twenty-eight variables were analyzed using a 28 × 28 structural cross-impact matrix in MICMAC software, and 26 structural and non-structural strategies were evaluated through three Delphi rounds.
FINDINGS: The matrix filling rate was 95.92%. Among the groups, economic–physical variables had the highest total influence (577), followed by environmental (211) and social variables (200). “Destruction of the urban wastewater system” (44), and “destruction of urban housing” and “damage to clinics and health centers” (42 each) were among the variables with higher influence. In the Delphi process, “cleaning and dredging the Karun River channel” (4.94), “improvement of the wastewater network and runoff collection system” (4.91), and “removal of Karun River meanders and creation of a suitable alignment” (4.87) received the highest mean scores.
CONCLUSION: Flood impacts in Ahvaz are interconnected and require an integrated and preventive management approach. Improvement of wastewater and runoff infrastructure, scientific management of the Karun River, control of development in high-risk areas, and strengthening institutional coordination and social capacities should be addressed simultaneously.
METHODS: This applied study employed a mixed-method sequential exploratory design. Data were collected through documentary studies, semi-structured interviews, and consultation with 50 purposively selected experts. Twenty-eight variables were analyzed using a 28 × 28 structural cross-impact matrix in MICMAC software, and 26 structural and non-structural strategies were evaluated through three Delphi rounds.
FINDINGS: The matrix filling rate was 95.92%. Among the groups, economic–physical variables had the highest total influence (577), followed by environmental (211) and social variables (200). “Destruction of the urban wastewater system” (44), and “destruction of urban housing” and “damage to clinics and health centers” (42 each) were among the variables with higher influence. In the Delphi process, “cleaning and dredging the Karun River channel” (4.94), “improvement of the wastewater network and runoff collection system” (4.91), and “removal of Karun River meanders and creation of a suitable alignment” (4.87) received the highest mean scores.
CONCLUSION: Flood impacts in Ahvaz are interconnected and require an integrated and preventive management approach. Improvement of wastewater and runoff infrastructure, scientific management of the Karun River, control of development in high-risk areas, and strengthening institutional coordination and social capacities should be addressed simultaneously.
Article Type: Research article |
Subject:
Environmental disasters
References
1. Smith K. Environmental hazards: assessing risk and reducing disaster. 6th ed. Abingdon: Routledge; 2013. [DOI:10.4324/9780203805305]
2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate change 2022: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2022. [DOI:10.1017/9781009325844]
3. Alizadeh S, et al. [Factors affecting the vulnerability of urban settlements to flooding (Persian)]. J Geogr Environ Hazards. 2020;12(2):55-72.
4. Ahmadi AA. [Strategic approach to urban resilience against natural hazards (case study: selected cities of Mazandaran province) (Persian)]. [dissertation]. [Tehran]: Edalat University; 2019.
5. Salehi E, Aghababaei MT, Sarmadi H, Farzad Behtash MR. [Environmental resilience assessment using causal network model (Persian)]. J Environ Stud. 2011;37(59):99-112.
6. Forgette R, et al. Improving flood warning response: development of a written response plan. J Contingencies Crisis Manag. 2008;16(4):[incomplete].
7. Tiernan A, et al. Addressing wicked problems in public policy: the role of deliberative forums. Policy Soc. 2015;34(1):53-64.
8. Pashazadeh A. [Assessing the resilience of Ardabil City against environmental hazards and presenting a resilient city model with a futures studies approach (Persian)]. [PhD dissertation]. Ardabil: University of Mohaghegh Ardabili; 2019.
9. Ahadnezhad M, Najafy S. [Identification of key factors affecting the future status of quality of life in urban settlements with emphasis on the application of futures studies (case study: Karmandan and Eslamabad neighborhoods of Zanjan City) (Persian)]. J Geogr Plan Space. 2020;10(35):26-105. [DOI:10.30488/gps.2020.109599]
10. 10. Ashley RM, Balmforth DJ, Saul AJ, Blanskby JD. Flooding in the future-predicting climate change, risks and responses in urban areas. Water Sci Technol. 2005;52(5):265-273. [DOI:10.2166/wst.2005.0142]
11. Balica SF, Wright NG, van der Meulen F. A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts. Nat Hazards. 2012;64:73-105. [DOI:10.1007/s11069-012-0234-1]
12. Saffari M, Zafari M, Norouzi H. [Vulnerability assessment of urban areas against flood hazard using GIS and fuzzy logic (Persian)]. Hum Geogr Res Q. 2011;73(1):45-60.
13. Meerow S, Newell JP, Stults M. Defining urban resilience: a review. Landsc Urban Plan. 2016;147:38-49. [DOI:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.11.011]
14. Danumah JH, Odai SN, Saley BM, Szarzynski J, Thiel M, Kwaku A, et al. Flood risk assessment and mapping in Abidjan district using multi-criteria analysis (AHP) model and geoinformation techniques, Côte d'Ivoire. Geoenviron Disasters. 2016;3:10. [DOI:10.1186/s40677-016-0044-y]
15. Munyai RB, Musyoki A, Nethengwe NS. An assessment of flood vulnerability and adaptation: a case study of Hamutsha-Muungamunwe village, Makhado municipality. Jàmbá J Disaster Risk Stud. 2019;11(2). [DOI:10.4102/jamba.v11i2.692.]
16. Arab Salghar AAA, Parhemmat J, Goudarzi M. [Climate change projection using general circulation models and downscaling of SDSM and LARS-WG models under radiative forcing scenarios in the Dez Basin (Persian)]. J Phys Geogr. 2022;14(55):89-108.
17. Panahi AH, Janbaz Ghobadi GR, Motevalli S, Khaledi Sh. [Modeling and regional prediction of rainfall-induced flood risk under climate change conditions (case study: Gorganroud watershed) (Persian)]. J Phys Geogr. 2022;14(56):1-20.
18. Behrouzi H, Zand Moghaddam MR, Kamyabi S. [Spatial distribution analysis of urban resilience to natural hazards with emphasis on floods (case study: Qaemshahr City) (Persian)]. J Phys Geogr. 2022;14(56):35-52.
19. Khaledi S, Ghahroudi Tali M, Farahmand G. [Measurement and evaluation of urban areas resilience to urban floods (case study: Urmia City)] [Persian]. Sustain Dev Geogr Environ. 2021;2(3):169-182.
20. Mir Asadollahi SS, Motevalli S, Janbaz Ghobadi GR. [Resilience analysis of urban settlements to flood with emphasis on socio-economic indicators (case study: Gorgan City) (Persian)]. J Appl Res Geogr Sci. 2020;20(59):137-157. [DOI:10.29252/jgs.20.59.137]
21. Karimi M, Kaki S. [Future climate conditions and hazards of Iran in climate research (Persian)]. Spat Anal Environ Hazards. 2018;5(3):1-22. [DOI:10.29252/jsaeh.5.3.1]
22. Kang Y, Peng X, Wang S, Dong C, Shang K, Zhao Y. Statistical characteristics and synoptic situations of long-duration heavy rainfall events over North China. Earth Space Sci. 2020;7(5):e2019EA000923. [DOI:10.1029/2019EA000923]
23. Kastridis A, Kirkenidis C, Sapountzis M. An integrated approach of flash flood analysis in ungauged Mediterranean watersheds using post-flood surveys and unmanned aerial vehicles. Hydrol Process. 2020;34(25):4920-4939. [DOI:10.1002/hyp.13913]
24. Feloni E, Mousadis I, Baltas E. Flood vulnerability assessment using a GIS-based multi-criteria approach-The case of Attica region. J Flood Risk Manag. 2020;13(Suppl 1):e12563. [DOI:10.1111/jfr3.12563]
25. Zhang X, Li H. Urban resilience and urban sustainability: What we know and what do not know? Cities. 2018;72:141-148. [DOI:10.1016/j.cities.2017.08.009]
Send email to the article author
| Rights and permissions | |
 |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
