Volume 16, Issue 3 (6-2024)
jorar 2024, 16(3): 154-161 |
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Asgari A, Arbabi Sabzevari A. Foresight of Informal Settlements to Increase Resilience against Earthquake. jorar 2024; 16 (3) :154-161
URL: http://jorar.ir/article-1-922-en.html
URL: http://jorar.ir/article-1-922-en.html
Associate Professor, Department of Geography & Urban Planning, Islamshahr Branch Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr, Tehran, Iran
Abstract: (218 Views)
INTRODUCTION: Considering the location, the frequency of faults and the probability of earthquake, district 20 is distinguished from other areas as the most dangerous region of Tehran. Due to the uncertainty of the time of the previous destructive earthquake, the probability of activation of these faults is very high.
METHODS: Regarding the exploratory nature of this research, the environmental scanning technique was used, and due to the dominant approach of this research, which is future research, the Delphi technique was used. Structural analysis has been used in MicMac software to analyze data.
FINDINGS: The results of the dispersion of the variables indicate the instability of the system in the studied area, and accordingly, five categories of variables were identified.
CONCLUSION: The results showed that based on the quantitative analysis of the Scenario Wizard software, three golden, static and crisis scenarios were obtained for the 2051 horizon of district 20, which is the most valid scenario related to the static scenario.
Article Type: Research article |
Subject:
Resilience
References
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16. Garha, N. S. & Azevedo, A. B. Population and housing (MIS) match in Lisbon, 1981-2018. A challenge for an aging society, social sciences. 2021; 10(3): 102. [DOI:10.3390/socsci10030102]
17. Storper, M. Why do regions develop and change? The challenge for geography and economics, Journal of Economic Geography, 2010; 11: 333-346. Doi:10.1093/jeg/lbq033. [DOI:10.1093/jeg/lbq033]
18. Neeraj D, Sandra C. Residents' self-initiatives for flood adaptation in informal riverbank Settlements of Kathmandu. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2019; 40 Doi.10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101156 [DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101156]
19. Purwar D., Sliuzas R., Flacke J. Assessment of cascading effects of typhoons on water and sanitation services: case study: informal settlements in Malabon, Philippines, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2020; 51:1-13 [DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101755]
20. UN Habitat. World cities report 2022. Envisaging the future of cities. Nairobi: Kenya: United Nations Human Settlements Programme. 2022
21. Ghaychi Afrouz S, Farzampour A, Hejazi Z, Mojarab M. Evaluation of seismic vulnerability of hospitals in the Tehran metropolitan area, Buildings. 2021; 11(2):54 (In Persian) [DOI:10.3390/buildings11020054]
22. Afsari R., Nadizadeh Shorabeh S. An analysis of the vulnerability of Tehran urban blocks to earthquake via designing and implementing a location-base model. Town and Country Planning. 2022; 14(2). (In Persian)
23. Mohammadi M. Physical- skeletal resilience analysis of urban areas based on scenario at the time of earthquake (case study: Zanjan city). JGS. 2021; 21 (60):65-85(In Persian) [DOI:10.52547/jgs.21.60.65]
24. Latifi A, Ziari K. E, Naderi S. Analysis and leveling of key drivers effective on increasing the physical resilience of Tehran city against earthquake using ISM structural-interpretive modeling (case study: district 10), Geography and Environmental Studies. 2022;11(3): 309-285. (In Persian)
25. Joyner M.D. Sasani, M. Building performance for earthquake resilience, Engineering Structures. 2020 [DOI:10.1016/j.engstruct.2020.110371]
26. Li J, Zhou Y. Optimizing risk mitigation investment strategies for improving post-earthquake road network resilience, International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology. 2020; 9(4): 277-286. [DOI:10.1016/j.ijtst.2020.01.005]
27. Niazi M., Reissi Dehkordi M., Eghbali M., Samadian D. Seismic resilience index evaluation for healthcare facilities: case study: Tehran hospitals, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2021; 65: 102639. (In Persian) [DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102639]
28. Bothara J, Ingham J, Dizhur D. Qualifying the earthquake resilience of vernacular masonry buildings along the Himalayan arc. Journal of Building Engineering. 2022; 52: 104339 [DOI:10.1016/j.jobe.2022.104339]
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