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:: Volume 11, Issue 2 (12-2019) ::
3 2019, 11(2): 82-91 Back to browse issues page
Future Studies of Political Crises resulted by Tehran's probable Earthquake [Vulnerability of information infrastructure and the probability of occurrence of crises of efficiency and influence]
Abolfazl Delavari *, Hamid Mahalti rayeni, Reza ali Mohseni
Department of Political Science, School of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract:   (113 Views)
INTRODUCTION: The density of the country’s information infrastructure in Tehran, Iran, and the
high vulnerability of these infrastructures raise the question of what effects the demolition of these
infrastructures would have. Natural disaster management is entirely dependent on the capacity
and efficiency of the central government in Iran and the government also mobilizes and organizes
crisis management and resources through an almost monopoly and exclusively controlled
information system. Therefore, the present study was accomplished to examine some of the likely
impacts and consequences of an earthquake in Tehran from a prospective perspective.
METHODS: Using documentary data and the implementation of a two-round Delphi panel, it
was examined whether the demolition of information infrastructures due to a potential
earthquake in Tehran would impose efficacy and influence crises on the government. In this
way, basic study information was collected using library documents and the futurological
aspects of the problem, i.e. the probability of a severe earthquake, destruction of media
infrastructure, and the subsequent possible crises were investigated using the Delphi method.
FINDINGS: Taking into account the tectonic potentials and historical backgrounds, the
occurrence of a major earthquake with magnitude greater than 7 is highly probable in Tehran.
Given the density of information structures, installations, and trusted organizations in
vulnerable areas, there is a high likelihood of destruction of a large part of the information
infrastructure and networks. This situation, in the absence of measures and sufficient
alternative networks, would increase the likelihood of severe disruptions in the information and
crisis management process. Such a situation, given the social and political contexts, is likely to
trigger or intensify the efficacy and influence crises.
CONCLUSION: Considering the drawbacks present in the information structure, i.e. the
concentration in Tehran and the imminent destructive earthquake in Tehran, as well as the
location of its physical buildings in the vicinity of earthquake faults, there would be many crises
facing the country.
Keywords: Earthquake, Iran, Information Infrastructure, Crisis Management, Political Crisis
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Type of Study: Research | Subject: پژوهشی
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delavari A, mahalti rayeni H, mohseni R A. Future Studies of Political Crises resulted by Tehran's probable Earthquake [Vulnerability of information infrastructure and the probability of occurrence of crises of efficiency and influence]. 3. 2019; 11 (2) :82-91
URL: http://jorar.ir/article-1-558-en.html


Volume 11, Issue 2 (12-2019) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی امداد و نجات Quarterly Scientific Journal of Rescue and Relief
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