Volume 16, Issue 4 (10-2024)
jorar 2024, 16(4): 205-212 |
Back to browse issues page
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Hemmati M, Hosseini S F, Jafari M, Estelaji A. Prioritization of Flood Vulnerability Criteria in Qirokarzin City, Fars Province, Iran. jorar 2024; 16 (4) :205-212
URL: http://jorar.ir/article-1-940-en.html
URL: http://jorar.ir/article-1-940-en.html
Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Yadegar-e-Imam Khomeini (RAH) Shahre Rey Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract: (275 Views)
INTRODUCTION: Flood is a natural hazard with the highest frequency and the widest geographic distribution around the world. Indiscriminate exploitation of forests and pastures, changing the land use and turning them into unsuitable agricultural lands, along with the indiscriminate construction of residential areas, have caused an increase in floods. This article is done with the aim of prioritizing flood vulnerability criteria in Qirokarzin city in Fars province.
METHODS: In this descriptive-analytical research, priorities and effective criteria were selected through library studies, examining various sources, as well as the Delphi technique, then, the opinion of experts and specialists was asked and prioritization was done using a questionnaire.
FINDINGS: The findings of the research indicated that 12 effective criteria in the occurrence of floods in the study area are: land use, streets and public roads, distance to the river, soil texture, amount of precipitation, not respecting the boundaries and development of urban areas towards the rivers, high runoff coefficient in the areas residential, low width of the communication network, population density, type of building materials, slope of the land and overall capacity of flood control. In the following, for each criterion, the graph of importance percentage and degree of importance was drawn, and finally, based on that, the priority of the effective criteria in the study area was determined.
CONCLUSION: According to the results obtained, appropriate structural and non-structural measures should be taken to minimize flood damage as much as possible. Therefore, managers and executives should consider appropriate management plans to reduce flood damage and include its results in regional development planning programs.
METHODS: In this descriptive-analytical research, priorities and effective criteria were selected through library studies, examining various sources, as well as the Delphi technique, then, the opinion of experts and specialists was asked and prioritization was done using a questionnaire.
FINDINGS: The findings of the research indicated that 12 effective criteria in the occurrence of floods in the study area are: land use, streets and public roads, distance to the river, soil texture, amount of precipitation, not respecting the boundaries and development of urban areas towards the rivers, high runoff coefficient in the areas residential, low width of the communication network, population density, type of building materials, slope of the land and overall capacity of flood control. In the following, for each criterion, the graph of importance percentage and degree of importance was drawn, and finally, based on that, the priority of the effective criteria in the study area was determined.
CONCLUSION: According to the results obtained, appropriate structural and non-structural measures should be taken to minimize flood damage as much as possible. Therefore, managers and executives should consider appropriate management plans to reduce flood damage and include its results in regional development planning programs.
Article Type: Research article |
Subject:
Other matters related to crisis, disasters and rescue & relief
References
1. Balica S. F, Popescu I, Beevers L, Wright N. G. Parametric and physically based modelling techniques for flood risk and vulnerability assessment: A comparison, Environmental Modelling & Software, 2013; 41: 84-92. [[DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.11.002]]
2. Uddin K, Gurung D. R, Giriraj Aet al. Application of remote sensing and GIS for flood hazard management: a case study from Sindh Province, Pakistan. Geogr. Inf. Syst, 2013 [[DOI:10.5923/j.ajgis.20130201.01]]
3. Easterling D.R, Evans J.L, Groisman P. Ya, et al. Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: a brief review, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, 2000; 81:417 425. [[DOI:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)0812.3.CO;2]]
4. Milly P.C.D, Wetherald R.T, Dunne K.A, Delworth T.L. Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate, Nature, 2002: 415: 514-517. [[DOI:10.1038/415514a]]
5. CRED and OFDA: EM-DAT International Disaster Database, 2015
6. Hettiarachchi, S. Wasko, C. and Sharma, A. Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed- the role of storm temporal patterns. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2018; 22: 2041-2056. [[DOI:10.5194/hess-22-2041-2018]]
7. Chang H, Franczyk J. Climate Change, Land-Use Change, and Floods: Toward an Integrated Assessment. Geogr. Compass, 2008; 2:1549-1579. [[DOI:10.1111/j.1749-8198.2008.00136.x]]
8. Arnold C, Gibbons C. Impervious Surface Coverage: The Emergence of a Key Environmental Indicator. The American Planning Association, 1996; 62: 243-258. [[DOI:10.1080/01944369608975688]]
9. Balling R.C, Goodrich G.B. Spatial analysis of variations in precipitation intensity in the USA. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2011; 104:415-421. [[DOI:10.1007/s00704-010-0353-0]]
10. Shi J, Cui L, Wen K, et al. Trends in the consecutive days of temperature and precipitation extremes in China during 1961-2015. Environ. Res, 2018; 161: 381-391. [[DOI:10.1016/j.envres.2017.11.037]]
11. Modarres R, Sarhadi A, Burn D.H. Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran, Global Planet. Change, 2016; 144: 67-81 (In Persian) [[DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.008]]
12. Aguilar E, Barry AA, Brunet M, Ekang L, Fernandes A, Massoukina M et al. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2009;27:114(D2). [DOI:10.1029/2008JD011010] [[DOI:10.1029/2008JD011010]]
13. Hertig E, Seubert S, Paxian A, et al. Changes of total versus extreme precipitation and dry periods until the end of the twenty-first century: statistical assessments for the Mediterranean area. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2013; 111: 1-20. [[DOI:10.1007/s00704-012-0639-5]]
14. Sharma Sh, Shukla A. D, et al. The Holocene floods and their affinity to climatic variability in the western Himalaya. India, Geomorphology, 2017; 290: 317-334. [[DOI:10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.04.030]]
15. Zhang Q, Gu X, Singh V.P, et al. Flood-induced agricultural loss across China and impacts from climate indices. Global Planet. Change, 2016; 139: 31- 43. [[DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.006]]
16. Lee G, Jun K.S, Chung, E.S. Integrated multi-criteria flood vulnerability approach using fuzzy TOPSIS and Delphi technique, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci, 2013; 13: 1293-1312. [[DOI:10.5194/nhess-13-1293-2013]]
17. Madruga de Brito, M, Evers M, Höllermann B. Prioritization of flood vulnerability, coping capacity and exposure indicators through the Delphi technique: A case study in Taquari-Antas basin, Brazil. Disaster Risk education, 2017; 24: 119-128. [[DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.05.027]]
18. Boulomytis V.T.G, Zuffo A.C, Imteaz, M.A. Detection of flood influence criteria in ungauged basins on a combined Delphi-AHP approach. Operations Research Perspectives, 2019; 6:100-116. [[DOI:10.1016/j.orp.2019.100116]]
19. Zulkarnain S.H. Razali, M.N. The Delphi method to identify attributes for a valuation approach for residential property exposed to flood risk. Property Management, 2022; 40: 62-82. [[DOI:10.1108/PM-10-2020-0067]]
20. Ahmadi F, Nasiriani, K, Abazari, P. Delphi technique: a tool in research. Medic Edu, 2017; 8: 175-185. (In Persian)
21. Alipour H, Malekian A, Kheirkhah Zarkesh M, et al. Application of Delphi Method and GIS in Site Selection Flood Water Spreading. Desert Ecosy Engin, 2016; 4: 11-22. (In Persian)
22. Abdi S, Abedi T, Abedi R. Prioritization of effective criteria in reducing the stability of agricultural ecosystems in West Azerbaijan province with the fuzzy Delphi technique. Agri Knowl and Sus Prod, 2018; 29: 307-321. (In Persian)
23. Pouresmaeel M, Salajegheh A, Malekian A, et al. Prioritization of Vulnerability Criteria in Azimiyeh (Karaj) Against the Flood based on the Delphi Method. Exten and Deve of Wate Manag, 2021; 99: 46-53. (In Persian)
24. Shahabi H. Application of artificial neural network, frequency ratio and evidential belief function models in preparing of flood susceptibility map in Haraz watershed: A plan for urban flood risk studies. Res and urban Plan, 2021; 12: 181-202. (In Persian)
25. Sanaifard A, Amirahmadi A, Zanganeh Y. Reducing the vulnerability of infrastructures against floods (case study: Sabzevar city). Scientific and Research Journal of Research and Urban Planning, 2023; 14(52): 1-16. (In Persian)
26. Walker AM, Selfe J. The Delphi method: a useful tool for the allied health researcher. Br J Ther Rehabil, 1996; 3: 677-81.
27. Manca D P, Varnhagen S, Brett-McLean P et al. Rewards and challenges of family practice: web-based survey using the Delphi method. Canadian family physician Medecin de Famille Canadien. 2007; 53: 278-86, 277. [[DOI:10.12968/bjtr.1996.3.12.14731]]
28. Landeta J. Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences. Tech Fore and Soc Chan, 2006; 73: 467-82. [[DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.002]]
29. Jones J, Hunter, D. Consensus methods for medical and health services research. Nati Lib of Med, 1995; 311: 376-80. [[DOI:10.1136/bmj.311.7001.376]]
30. Powell C. The Delphi technique: myths and realities. J Adv Nurs, 2003; 41: 376-82. [[DOI:10.1046/j.1365-2648.2003.02537.x]]
31. Report on studies of Dasht Qirokarzin plain. Groundwater management studies of South Fars. 2001. (In Persian)
32. Adler M, Ziglio E. Gazing into the oracle: the Delphi method and its application to social policy and public health, Jessica Kingsley Publishers, London. 1996.
33. Haddadinia S, Danehkar A. Prioritization of ecotourism criteria in desert and semi-arid ecosystems by Delphi method. Manag Sys. 2012; 2:17-30. (In Persian)
Send email to the article author
| Rights and permissions | |
 |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
